A strong cold front will approach Arkansas Tuesday. As the front moves into the warm, moist air accompanied by a strong jet stream aloft, potentially strong to severe thunderstorms will develop.
Storms will develop over Western and Northwest Arkansas during the early afternoon and push Eastward during the late afternoon and evening hours. Below is the forecast radar for Tuesday afternoon pushing into Western Arkansas.
Storms will develop into a squall line with locally damaging wind gusts as the storms push Eastward into Central Arkansas. The greatest risk for storms in Central Arkansas is during the evening hours, especially between about 6PM and 10PM. Below is our computer model projection for 8PM, showing the storms over Central Arkansas.
Storms will push through Eastern Arkansas during the late evening hours and out of the State by shortly after Midnight.
Along with strong damaging wind gusts, isolated embedded tornadoes are possible along the squall line due to the strong wind shear. Below is the Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for tomorrow. All of Arkansas is under a risk area for severe storms. A moderate risk has been issued for parts of Central, Southern and Eastern Arkansas where the severe threat is greatest
Very strong wind shear along with warm, moist air in place ahead of the front will create an environment conducive for spin-ups to develop along the squall line. These spin-ups may create tornadoes, and due to the strong wind field in place any tornado that does form may be strong to violent (EF2 or higher) The storm prediction Center has placed much of Arkansas in a enhanced risk for EF2 or stronger tornadoes for Tuesday evening as indicated in the shaded area below.
The tornado threat will be highest across Central, Eastern and Southeast Arkansas, where the combination of wind shear and instability will be maximized. Below are tornado probabilities as indicated by the Storm Prediction Center.
(probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point)
Some locally heavy rains are also possible with over 2 inches possible in some spots. Some brief ponding of water on roadways is possible, but significant flooding is not expected. Storms will exit the State by shortly after Midnight, followed by sharply cooler air for Wednesday morning.